Welcome Aboard!

AHOY,


UPDATE 12/21/13, 11:42 HOURS

I am revealing who I am today i.e. posting my name, I am Keith Oeffinger, I was born in San Antonio Texas in 1963. See today's post 12/21/13 .


Update, 01/11/14 12:30 hours;

I would like to say, with only one reply, like three years ago, this blog seems too much like a mirror site to me. And it appears very few patriots are looking back at past posts.

The new “Fragmented Fighting Facts” series of posts that dedicates one post to each Basic rule has now been completed. This series starts with the post tilted “Post # 1, Planning, Preface” that posted on 05/12/13. This series is under the label “Tri-F in progress”. Posts well be updated as I edit or discover additional knowledge thus the series is the most current version of my "Fragmented Fighting Facts" manual. For an old but complete version i.e. all in one post copy. Patriots are welcomed to try viewing one of the “pages” listed in the “special word section” on the starboard side of the blog. I say try due to the fact I’m not sure if they are published i.e. viewable to the general public due to all the issues or HACKING with my blog. There is also a complete copy posted, that is titled, “Tri-F in progress” too, it was posted 11/13/10.

And feel free to fire away with a reply, (sarcasm on).


FLASH REPORT; the “TERRORIST ARE NOT AMONG US, AND NEVER WERE I.E. AL QAEDA IS A STAWL MAN, GHOST”.

The most important lesson that everyone should have taken away from the Boston Marathon bombings was that those young men proved that no al-queda members are in the u.s. Otherwise they too would just go get some presure cookers and had to a parade.

“I AM NOT A TERRORIST” this nation’s worst enemy is FEAR. This fear is being promoted mostly by the back woods, right wing, Christians of this nation. We need to separate church and state, period. And that is of course for the States sake.


I would like patriots to understand that I use the terms "official revealed fact" to mean what everyone is being told by officials, media etc. I use the term "kings truth" to mean what I know or believe to actually be the actual facts. I DO NOT MEAN IT IN A RELIGIOUS WAY. I.E. the term Kings is plural as in those running the show.


Preface for the Fragmented Fighting Facts

Note pink highlighted material is that, that IMO is questionable factually, it maybe an “official revealed fact” that I am questioning. The material may need to be defined i.e. explained more or it could be a personal note. Yellow is location undecided or unedited material i.e. unread that I have not decided on what to keep or not. Green means a change has been made i.e. an update. By noting the green updated highlights a Patriot well not have to read the Fragmented Fighting Facts in its entirety to stay current. Red is important, perhaps the "kings truth".

Newjarheaddean; this is my collection of combat notes. One might call it my anthology of combat tactics, techniques, methods and skills. The note taking began about fourty years ago (I was around 13 years old) with the observation of 10 rules listed with in a book covering the French and Indian i.e. Native American, wars, entitled “Roger’s Rangers”. That’s right the rules that started all this are “Army Ranger” rules, this book was located in the “Westfall” library in San Antonio Texas off of Vance Jackson. I get a kick out of the libraries name due to the general agreement that modern or state vs state warfare started with the singing of the peace treaties at Westphalia. I could not read at the time; however I knew that a list in a book on war would be important. I copied those rules down like a scribe might have written hieroglyphs and had my dad read them to me. . This discovery preceded numerous sources including approximately one hundred books and about a dozen field manuals, of which a few were of WWII era. These were found at libraries, half price bookstores and garage sales. Since going on line in 2007, I have found material on web sites such as “Defense and National Interest” (DNI), “Global security”, “Strategy page” , “Wikipedia” and “Bayonet strength” and “Efour4ever” in the combat lessons learned section. These last two sites cover WWII.

Previously referred to as K.O.O.L.N. (acronym definition, top secret), FLASH REPORTS; I NOW AM TELLING EVERYONE IT STANDS FOR KEITH OEFFINGER'S ORGANIZATION OF LEARNED KNOWLEDGE the joke on me here was I believed Knowledge was spelled with an (N). I was a special education student and did not learn to read until my last year of high school. I have now titled my work “Fragmented Fighting Facts” or “Tri-F”; the name derives from the computer grammar function always alerting me to the fragmented nature of my sentences. This is due to the “just the facts, ma’am” manor the material is written i.e. there has been little if any effort to write in whole sentences or provide context. This is not to say there is no order with Tri-F, in fact there is a theme. I have laid out the information as one might expect a commander or members of a unit to recall it thus utilizing it to conduct a mission.

We start with “Planning”, followed by the section on “Defense”, then there’s “Preparations and conduct of patrols” or “PCP”, and we end with “Conduct of Engagements” or “COE”, i.e. engagements being the term used here for shootouts. Each section of Tri-F consists of numbered “Basic rules”, each basic rule followed by detailed notes that either relate to, explain, or give examples pertaining to the basic rules. As with the general format of Tri-F, each section’s basic rules are laid out as one might need to recall them. This is most obvious in the last section COE starting with basic rule number one, “Flash report”, i.e. actions to take upon contact with the enemy. This sections last basic rule deals with handling POWs.

Keep in mind this is a work in progress; I’m constantly discovering new information to add which in turn still at times requires rearranging things. At the same time, interestingly enough to me, I have not needed to rearrange my original order of the basic rules for quite some time. There are however, two instances where the detailed information fallowing a pair of basic rules became so similar I decided to combine the pair into one basic rule. These two occurrences are noted in footnotes.

Now heed this, out of all the information contained within this work, only an estimated 1% was taught to me while I was serving in the U.S.M.C. Moreover, to put a fine point on it, it’s worth noting I served in Charlie Company, First Battalion, Fifth Marines, First Marine Division, i.e. an Infantry unit. Before my discharge (after only a two year cruse), I attended Jungle Warfare School in the northern training area of Okinawa (for two weeks), Mountain Warfare School in Korea (for one week) and Combat Town Camp Pendleton for MOUT training (for one day). I did not take part in any amphibious training nor did I ever go to Twenty Nine Palms for Desert Warfare training. We did ride around in AAVs once at Camp Pendleton. All in all I would say the only things I missed out on were a beach landing (at Coronado I believe) and a little sun burn, due to the fact that those twenty nine palms, I was told in the early eighties were all located at the front gate of that base. Needless to say, the training did not impress me, and I now know it was not going to get any better as some suggested to me at the time, and still others later claimed that I should have just stayed in longer.

With my position on the lack of training, I do wish to make it perfectly clear that I do support the service women and men in the U.S. armed forces. I also believe them to be as brave as any people on earth, (with the exception of the (Y) generation). My concern is in the way the Infantry especially is being mislead and used. I want people to understand my experience and IMO a lot of evidence suggests Uncle Sam intends to use his infantry in ways that does not include training any generation in the art of “traditional Guerilla combat tactics” i.e. as a “Traditional Commando” would be. I am not talking about “SWAT” team “Close quarter” tactics, like the “Stick dynamic entry”. That tactic should be called the “cluster f**k”. Just call that sort of tactic what it is NYPD (Cops T.V. show bad-boys, bad-boys) in Afghanistan.

The problem is that that tactic was developed by police departments to deal with an objective occupied by drugged up party animals, i.e. untrained civilians. The police never use it in a spur of the minute situation. They use it when the house/objective has been under constant surveillance for mouths in some cases and the police know all manner of information about everyone in the house and the structure and neighborhood in general. The cops choose a time when everyone is pasted out from partying the night before and have long lost any weapons (between the cushions or under the bed) they might have had on them as show pieces during the party. The primary reason for the large numbers of police in close proximity is to make sure the gang does not think the raid is a rival gang “brake in” and thus resist in any way. There is lots of yelling too, thus reinforcing the message that no one is trying to be covert, like one would be to get away with a crime.

This brings up an intriguing observation of mine; that being that by the book an assault should be made from the top down, yet the troops in Afghanistan and elsewhere use the Stick dynamic entry and usually enter from the front door, like a SWAT team. However resent high profile raids show the SWAT teams attacking from the top down. Examples you may recall are the raids on the Shinning path group in Peru in 2000 and the Mumbai raid by Indian forces on the Jewish center in 2008. IMO this proves the existence of what I’ll refer to as a “need to know” training policy, being followed by various governments, the purpose being to limit the number of true Commandos that could become tomorrow’s rebels, apposing corrupt governments. One last thing about the Stick, IMO every single time the regular forces unit conducting one of these foolish Stick dynamic entries comes under fire i.e. runs into resistance, the Stick brakes i.e. the whole unit evacuates and awaits some kind of support form tanks, guns, tubes or air. Bottom line IMO the Stick is used as a probing tactic and is meant to be a moral boosting show peace tactic to make the unit feel as if it has taken a hill, which was nothing more than another empty building, that IMO Intel suggested, was the case before the entry was ordered. Recalling the police policy of long periods of surveillance prior to raids.

It also seems to me that in light of the old saying “you can fight a war with bombs and blockades but only boots on the ground can win it” ( IMO, Uncle Sam has now revised that saying, as fallows) “you can win a war with bombs and blockades, but only the infantry can end the war”, farther more IMO Uncle Sam has gone one more step and decided to use private security companies and local i.e. indigenous people for the infantry role. All this fear of true commandos is all very similar to the “Mujahideen” not being allowed by various governments, to return to their homelands i.e. native nations, after fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.

And as for the U.S. and other Western nations, training foreigners to fight a counter insurgency goes. IMO this training includes nothing more than police procedures i.e. conducting investigations, forensics, searching individuals and buildings to collect evidence and yes serving warrants, if necessary, with those all mighty “stick” tactics. And of course, lots of “new innovative techniques and tactics” involving CAS and IMO (Old) so called high tech equipment the U.S. Military Industrial Congressional Complex wants to clear out of the warehouses.

All in all IMO Uncle Sam has chosen to put just about all his eggs in one advanced technology system, think Star Wars Storm Troopers or Matrix i.e. the Operator or Morpheus trying to guide Neo and others to safety. IMO it looks something like this; (x) unit go to (x) address, kick in front door, use stairs to your right, go south down hallway to (x) door, it is unlocked, interning room go to (x) window looking out window to the north you will see your target running east though the neighbors garden. All this information and the “live” feeds of target and area of operations would be provided by a fleet of satellites as well as Near space assets that are never mentioned by the media as current military assets and of course there’s the robots, UAVs and a flood of other covertly deployed sensors as well as covert eves dropping of any civilian electronic devices in the Area of operations.

Thus in light of these and similar so called “new innovative, techniques and tactics” (notice the media and governments choice of words “techniques and tactics” as if we’re talking Commando training i.e. why not use some modern high tech terms the system is so eager to introduce us all to normally as a matter of routine), IMO Uncle Sam has placed the traditional Guerrilla combat tactics, on the back burner and is hoping they all go the way of other black arts.

This is not just true of the infantry; let us take a peek at aerial combat. Does anyone out there actually think today’s U.S. pilots are turning and burning, pulling high (G) maneuvers trying to hit the entry windows and get inside the bandits turn. Think any pilot has conducted a yo-yo or split S maneuver lately or made the choice between a single or two-circle fight. Now days its all about stealth, ECM and Smart even autonomous weapons, missiles especially BVR tech. IMO this explains why the U.S. Navy is not concerned with not having a front line fighter equal to the USAF F-22 Raptor. An article I recently read on “Strategy page” mentioned a lot of talk about a Navy F/A-18E at an air show, displaying a little F-22 silhouette decal i.e. a simulated Kill credit symbol/icon. IMO the F/A- 18E did not gun down that kill.

And then everyone knows that just about all now and IMO soon all weapons systems including the bayonet well have a chip in it.

So if the electronics ever fail (maybe due to a shift in the axis of earths electromagnetic field, passed a certain point or perhaps a record size solar flare) IMO it well be the masters of the age-old Guerrilla combat tactics i.e. The Fragmented Fighting Facts Basic Rules that survive, keeping in mind “no one wins”.

I also wish, that those who join the various services where told all this up front i.e. “we do not intend to train you as a traditional Commando”.

Another thing I would like everyone to consider is that; what makes a Marine special is not the training she or he receives, no it’s the steel the youth demonstrates when they choose to join the Marines. Even when compared to the Special Forces, who IMO are only specialists in their particular field, once again mostly high tech specialties and whose ranks are filled with older personnel that have already been serving and have graduated from a boot camp i.e. are aware of the hoop and hype hurry up and wait tactics. And who are then usually chosen i.e. coached into changing their MOS. I am aware of the change in recruitment policy after 2001 allowing for direct entry into the S.F. community. IMO a rarity and IMO it is still not the same as just choosing to go to a Marine Corps Recruit Depot from the start.

Furthermore, to those who just well not accept the truth about the lack of training along the lines of traditional Guerrilla combat tactics. I can now say that I have exchanged comments with a number of Iraqi and Afghanistan combat vets. These comments can be found on the internet if you Google up my call sign, Newjarheaddean also spelled with one (D). IMO it is obvious that the tactics I speak of are news to the vets, some have made commits that proves in combat they were just winging it. And no, I don’t believe that all the vets are observing some kind of code of silence on these tactics including the vets who are against the wars. Unless everyone wants to say that YouTube and other internet companies are conspiring to edit all combat footage that shows these tactics being used and that, the vets are staging other videos that show them (albeit with great bravery) as armatures without a clue and winging it. If anyone ever sees video, showing the tactics listed in Tri-F being used, be sure and provide a link with your comment. I once saw a flash of film on CNN showing combat in Lebanon during the 1980s that showed some of these tactics being used by a Guerrilla fighter. I well also say I do believe that UAV footage is edited by the Pentagon to keep the public from seeing the few but well trained Taliban and other Guerrilla fighters that are using these tactics. Alternatively, maybe people think our professional highly trained well-equipped military is unable to defeat 10 – 20 thousand religious extremist amateur thugs in almost a decade of fighting. All the while killing at least by some estimates 100 a mouth including dozens of top commanders.

Let me also say, on the numbers of U.S. PTSD casualties, i.e. IMO, WIA, (And IMO deserving of a Purple Heart). The Government portrays these cases as a result of fighting a war that is “unlike any other war we have fought before” (LOL). Facing an enemy that is fighting in some mysterious and or cowardly manor that simply cannot be countered by military means. I believe the high numbers are a result of US forces fighting in a manner that is suicidal i.e. pointless and counterproductive to the real world situation. Example; you have a young brave American ready to fight for the nation, while on one of these IMO “Russian roulette parades” someone shoots at the unit from some building, everyone scrambles for cover, as some spray and pray, then after determining the location using SWATS (Soldier Worn Acoustic Targeting Systems) sniper detectors, or one of the many similar vehicle mounted systems the commander calls in some sort of CAS, if someone’s brains have been blow out especially if it was an officer or the location is vague, a real “crowd pleaser” maybe used i.e. 2000 pounder.

IMO this is how 90% of engagements (fought by regular infantry units) are resolved. Special Forces are now and in the feature more and more regular infantry well be using the Matrix. And to those that think this is the exception I say show me the number of WIA or KIA (On either side) by small arms fire i.e. during traditional firefights. Even if one includes sniper fire those figures are really low. So IMO after witnessing all the carnage and innocent civilian life being lost and receiving all those looks from the witnesses, it is the American that realizes it is his unit that is not fighting right.

This is reinforced and really sinks in back in the states when the vet is asked to tell the Commando stories that never occurred and thus the vet must tell the truth i.e. give up the Commando reputation, keep it all inside or start lying. If the first option is chosen that unveiling reality is demoralizing and makes it all not worth it. If either one of the other chooses are made IMO the vet becomes the ticking bomb. And I can tell you all that many times, I have recalled being told once that “when you go home keep your mouth shut about the things we did. If you don’t you well be thought of as a liar or crazy and either which way your life well be over”. That First Sergeant was right, but like my daddy use to say, “He’s right but he does not know why he’s right” i.e. IMO the First Sgt. thought of what we did in terms of remarkable heroic feats. However, IMO certainly since the beginning of the Vietnam era, it is the lack of training i.e. the manner in which our service women and men are fighting that keeps this tragedy going.

I would also suggest the vets of today are just like I was 25 or so years ago in the sense that they know there training is lacking, however, they just cannot explain what’s missing. However unlike me they refuse to accept that old fashion “black arts” are the answer i.e. should be the basis of basic training. And I now know the “Black art” tactics they and I should have been trained in and I can now say, “The PFC that told the Corp it was out of step, now has provided the proof”. What surprises me is that most vets it seems don’t care at all about the tactics I speak of and seem to view me as an unpatriotic “party pooper”, when I’m just a U.S. Marine trying to improve the Corps and save lives. Bottom line IMO the infantry needs to consist of unmarried i.e. undistracted, NO CHILDREN, dedicated true professionals, trained in the tactics listed in Tri-F and many more I am sure exist.

And to those that say “chivalry is for the museums” I say “first we must have peace on earth”.

One Newjarheaddean

“Let no Marines ghost say if my training had only done its job”

" Give me a million dollars and I well change the world"

" When it comes to persecution and suffering that fairly tale about christ dose not have (S) nothing on me"

" I well bet my lucky start"

“IKYG”

G-day!

Update; 12/19/14 09/53 hours




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Generations, Strategy's Blocks and Tactics


AHOY,

update; 04/13/12 07;40 hours, mostly grammar and context, that I did not high-lite.


update; 04/12/12 I've now combined what I feel is the best of the post on Strategy page site, my post on this blog and this page. This page like I said well be a work in progress. With all the copy and paisting the grammar is not as good as I would like, LOL. 



AHOY,


"Engage" And lets go we're no man has gone before, LOL. I'll be back here from time to time with more of my epiphanies...



GENERATIONS, STRATEGY'S, BLOCKS AND TACTICS

AHOY, I am going to attempt to make the case here that what we are looking at in the evolution of Warfare, is a cyclic afar not a linear continuum. I find it odd that those defining all these so called "generations of warfare", usually do so based on a change in what I would call tactics. Fallowed up by the statement that tactics are for the armatures. And like I have also pointed out in the past, go to the library and see how many books you can find on tactics. The word tactics is used in lots of titles, yet the material is strategies. Then note that you can find shelves of books on strategy. My point is if strategies were the most important element of warfare would the government make that info so readily available? I think not. I think all the books on strategies are nothing more than filibuster to waste everyone's time. Here with this post, I am sure I could have done more research and provided dates and figures etc. to support my theories.  However IMO this is a big old can of warms and so I'll let this be my starting salvo.


As far as Strategies go I say ultimately you only have three choices, one Overt operations, two, Covert operations and three, surrender. With either of these you can be subtle or aggressive. With surrender it may be that the new old saying of "surrender, surrender but don't give yourself away" may be the source of the problem. That is to say, that people are individuals free spirits and thus after the age of 20 or so they never are able to fully buy into anyone else's ideology no matter how hard they try. There for the old ugly head of change i.e. conflict, keeps raising its ugly head. Boardum could also play apart i.e utopia is boring.


Anywho!


1st cycle IMO is Man vs Nature and Creature; Starting with the Dawn of man, (however that took place). I do believe in God, just not organized religion. I just cannot get my mind around the image of a microbe crawling out of a pool of whatever one day or night fallowed, 6 billion years later by a guy waving down a taxi on 5th avenue in New York City. I forget the movie or show that I got that from but I really like it. Here with this 1st cycle, just like with the three block war theory. I remind everyone that even today you may find yourself in a survival situation i.e. living off land etc. I would also suggest that Global warming is a cycle of this reoccurring conflict.






2nd cycle IMO is Man vs Man; this I well say started around the time of the advent of agriculture thus giving birth to your four cradles of civilization. We have not stayed so civil have we? LOL. With some men having lots of positions and others doing without, greed or envy soon arrived, we have people taking things they wanted or needed. And so those doing without began taking things they wanted. I will include here the so called "1st generation of war" i.e. the "covet" lol at Westphalia thus state vs. state monopoly on warfare. To me all manner of changes occur here including the advances of many sciences, starting the conflict of “Chruch vs State”. One major change was the industrial revolution which IMO brought about the "military, industrial, Congressional, Complex i.e. "The MICC", thus mass production of weapons and material. Thus IMO war as a business and a major global export, with WWI, being the first example of how this enterprise could work. As far as WMDs go, I say these have existed ever since man began using the same well to drink from i.e. Bio warfare became as simple as someone throwing an animal carcass into the well. I don't know if it actually accrued but there was the story of the British giving the blankets infected with small pox to the Native Americans.. If it did not accrue IMO it certainly would have worked that way. Here we also have the various economic systems. I recommend the video "money as debt". You can find a link to it on the starboard side of my blog. The bottom line to this film is that a system base on consumption of natural resources is finite. IMO any attempt to introduce conservation or recycling and alternatives makes for great theory strategically, however tactically IMO no one well be the first to take a serious cut in profits. Thus they are suggesting fighting a forest fire with a bucket of water. Today I do not believe B.P. is serious with their latest feel good commercial propaganda messages.
And on the financial systems. IMO all three systems, Communism, Socialist Europe, and the so called free Capitalist here in the U.S. have failed for the same reason. GREED! In Russia it was greed by the officials. And imo Communism is the best and most fair of all and imo, that system even under the corrupt Russian government, would have out lasted the others, if it had not had to compete with the West, especially the U.S. in the Cold war. The wealthy here in the U.S. were the ones that were to greedy and killed our economy. Keeping in mind, imo (911) brought it all to a head much quicker i.e. made those running things throw the book out, in public, thus taking away the illusion of the so called white marketers having the moral high ground.

And in Europe it was the people themselves i.e. wanting it to good, too much vacation, too many benefits, not enough work. Along with their own wealthy, getting caught up in our (U.S.) wealthiest ones, scams. Not to mention they too had to keep up with the Jones (U.S.) and others too.

Now let’s talk population control, it has to be fixed i.e. controlled or we are like people trapped in an air tight volt with only a small hole providing air, if we let more in we suffocate quicker. With my one foot equals a mile scaled visualization system I have looked at this, examples I have mentioned before are that 3.1 million people can stand with in a one square mile area with each person having 9 square feet i.e. one square yard to stand in.

So my point is it is a resources problem not a space problem. Like it was mentioned in one of Time Magazine's latest articles. With the people living within the current density of NYC, everyone on earth (est. 7 billion) could fit within the state of Texas.

I well suggest that the Christians and this marriage issue equals multiply, is to blame in large part. The government too with its more benefits if you have more children. Here someone needs to say hay if each of the parents (in case of divorce) cannot afford the kid, you don't have it. (No I’m not “Chicom” I’m try common sense) The system I know firsthand is based on promoting the family (i.e. trap) first and foremost. Real life example; I worked for a company once and was the best worker they had ever seen. This in my younger days. However when it came to getting a raise it was explained to me that the other guy and his wife were expecting a baby so he got the raise. I explained to that idiot manager, that he could find two or three other "yes men" to take my place. Because I knew he wanted more people that had "sold their soul" to the company store i.e. that the company knew they had by the short ones. Like I've said this is a big old can of warms, I could go no and no.


Like I said, I had originally posted all this on the "Strategy page" site. And I had considered the "separation of church and state to be the third cycle. However that like so much of the things I post was just off the top of my head i.e. me shooting from the hip. I have not yet begun to mastermind anything yet. I’m waiting for god to call the old man. Again here in my rush I imo sounded cold to say the least. I hope god gives the old man ten more years. And the way he is going only god knows. It's because of the old man working on his writings such long hours, that I don't have more time to work on the computer. LOL, more power to him. 


Anywho! after giving it a micro second, lol of thought after first posting, I realized the “Church vs state” conflict, would be just another moment in the man verses man saga. Thus, I now turn my thoughts to, Separation of Church and State; here we could start with the people in the old testament choosing a King vs the Judges/priest. Or our forefathers leaving Europe to start over and perhaps the Middle East is starting on such an experiment today. Much like the Europeans being less religious than Americans now are. Or Mexico is also a great example of this, Mexico city allows gay marriage. IMO I sign of maturity on the part of Mexico's society.
IMO though, it seems the priest is never far behind and people in general are week, so they flock back to there old ways maybe even starting with the kings/presidents. That is to say for political reasons they preach to the choir, and plant those seeds. Maybe we could start by realizing that organized religion like career politicians are two major problems of the so called "free world". Why not, keep it as an individual experience, between god and you. If you would like to be a part of a theocracy then we could provide a ticket i.e. Transportation to say Iran or the United Kingdom. Or we here in the U.S. might find ourselves surrender to the christian's and awaiting Armageddon, hoping they have it right i.e. gods is on our side as we watch our porn and sports, behind our electronic security robots.



(notes to be added later, on U.S. forefathers and those types who traveled here. You see imo the people who want to claim that separation of church and state was to protect the church, need to ask why it was not plainly stated that way. I mean if it was just the sytle of the cross or the costums that the English church clergy wore, that our forefathers object too. Why...

IMO, the vague wording was more of a compromise, those in charge of the Government at the time made to prevent a sheephood uprising, get the votes etc. ) 



3rd cycle of conflict IMO maybe "man Vs Machine".


Note; from my original post on Strategy page.
 
AHOY,
I missed something here with my little epiphany. Let's look at some terms and excerpts from "Time" magazine February 21 2011 issue. These are not presented in the exact order of the original article. And have been edited or paraphrased to get to the points I wanted to make.

From the Time article...

 "Organic intelligence" O.I. and "Artificial intelligence" A.I. "Singularity" is borrowed from astrophysics; it refers to a point in space- time for example, inside a black hole at which the rules of ordinary physics do not apply.


"Machinekind"
Computers are getting faster, faster--- that is, the rate at which they're getting faster is increasing. True? True.
He (Mr. Raymond Kurzweil) knew about Moore's law, of course. Kurzweil tried plotting a slightly different curve; the change over time in the amount of computing power, measured in MIPS (millions of instructions per second), that you can buy for $ 1,000. As it turned out Kurzweil's numbers looked a lot like Moore's. They doubled every couple of years. Drawn as graphs, they both made exponential curves, with their value increasing by multiples of two instead of by regular increments in a straight line. 

The curves held eerily steady, even when he extended his backward through the decades of pretransistor computing technologies like relays and vacuum tubes, all the way back to 1900. Kurzweil then ran the numbers on a whole bunch of other key technological indexes the falling cost of manufacturing transistors, the rising clock speed of microprocessors, the plummeting price of dynamic RAM. He looked even further afield at trends in biotech and beyond the falling cost of sequencing DNA and of wireless data service and the rising numbers of internet hosts and nanotechnology patents.

He Kept finding the same thing; exponentially accelerating progress.
"It's really amazing how smooth these trajectories are, he says. Through thick and thin, war and peace, boom times and recessions." Kurzweil calls it the law of accelerating returns; technological progress happens exponentially , not linearly.
Then he extended the curves into the future, and the growth they predicted was so phenomenal, it created cognitive resistance in his mind. Exponential curves start slowly, then rocket skyward toward infinity.

Here's what the exponential curves told him. We well successfully reverse engineer the human brain by the mid-2020s. By the end of that decade, computers will be capable of human level intelligence. Kurzweil puts the date of the Singularity never say he's not conservative, at 2045.

In that year, he estimates, given the vast increases in computing power and the vast reductions in the cost of the same, the quantity of artificial intelligence created will be about a billion times the sum of all the human intelligence that exists today.

All that horsepower could be put in the service of emulating whatever it is our brains are doing when they create consciousness- not just doing arithmetic very quickly or composing piano music but also driving cars, writing books, making ethical decisions, appreciating fancy painting, or making witty observations at cocktail parties. They would take over their own development. 

Probably. It's impossible to predict the behavior of these smarter than human intelligences with which (with whom) we might one day share the planet, because if you could, you'd be as smart as they would be. But there are a lot of theories to become super intelligent cyborgs, using computers to extend our intellectual abilities the same way that cars and planes extend our physical abilities.

Maybe the artificial intelligences well help us treat the effects of old age and prolong our life spans indefinitely. Maybe we'll scan our consciousnesses into computers and live inside them as software, forever, virtually. Maybe the computes will turn on humanity and annihilate us. The one thing all these theories have in common is the transformation of our species into something that is no longer recognizable as such to humanity circa 2011.

This transformation has a name the "Singularity". The difficult thing to keep sight of when you're talking about the "Singularity" is that even though it sounds like science fiction, it isn't, no more than a weather forecast is science fiction. It's not a fringe idea; it's a serious hypothesis about the future of life on Earth.



04/10/12 Newjarheaddean's twist on things. I'll now coin my own term i.e. not just "Machinekind" as Kurzweil suggest, but "Supremkind".


I think back to the movie Matrix (Revolutions) i.e. IMO the machine may never be able to insert an actual "Ghost" i.e. spirit. However it's software may find us humans to be the last frontier of the unknown. And thus unlock the 90% of our brains we currently do not use. This may enable the human mind with the abilities of levitation, telekinesis, ESP etc. thus the old adage of "curiosity killing the cat" i.e. keys to being supreme to the machines. For example taking them apart with our minds. We could think the movie, "planet of the apes" only here it would be "planet of the humans" i.e. gone " Supremkind".

To support my theory that all this conflict is simply cycles, I'll suggest that this cycle goes all the way back to the first tools used by man. And it could turn out that all those mysteries such as the Pyramids or Stone Hedge, turn out to actually be of our "Supremkind" ancestry.



To be continued...








" Give me a million dollars and I well change the world" 


" When it comes to persecution and suffering that fairy tale about christ has not got (S) nothing on me" 


" I well bet my lucky star" IKYG


G-day! 

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